The Greater Horn of Africa is on the brink of a devastating polycrisis, fueled by a perfect storm of interconnected challenges. This region, already grappling with prolonged crisis and conflict, is now facing a formidable combination of factors that could have catastrophic consequences. As experts in famine, conflict, and humanitarian crises, we are deeply concerned about the potential for widespread suffering in the second half of 2026 and beyond.
Climate Crisis and El Niño
The short rains in the eastern Greater Horn of Africa were significantly below average in the fall of 2025, and the long rains in March to May 2026 were also well below normal. This has had a devastating impact on crop production and grazing, exacerbating the crisis of rural livelihoods. The region's forecast for the northern Horn of Africa, which includes heavily populated areas like Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Sudan, is also projected to be below average. The impending super El Niño could cause both drought and extensive flooding, leading to population displacement and the loss of livelihoods.
Ebola Outbreak and Conflict
An unpredictable variant of the Ebola virus has taken hold in Congo and Uganda, raising concerns about its potential spread to South Sudan. This would not only create a major epidemic risk but also complicate the response to other shocks. The region is already plagued by violent conflicts, with multiple parties vying for power and military advantage. This makes it even more challenging to address the impact of climate, health, and price shocks, and risks further exacerbating or accelerating individual drivers of conflict.
Fertilizer Shortage and Food Prices
The war in Iran has led to significant increases in transportation and food costs, and a fertilizer shortage caused by the war is projected to reduce harvests later in the year. This will keep food prices high long after the active conflict ends. The Horn of Africa will be doubly affected by the fertilizer bottleneck, as local production will be reduced, and global food prices will be higher. This will impact regional surplus-producing areas, reducing opportunities for agricultural work and increasing the cost of food for the poorest people.
The Perfect Storm
The combination of climatic, conflict, market, and epidemic shocks is not simply additive but multiplicative. Climate and epidemic shocks almost inevitably exacerbate conflict and encourage crackdowns on population movements. The deliberate gutting of the global humanitarian response infrastructure, including the closure of USAID and major cuts in spending on foreign aid, has undermined the international system's capacity to respond to major shocks. This, coupled with longer-term political and governance challenges in eastern Africa, risks further displacement and a rise in mortality.
Local Efforts and the Way Forward
With the international humanitarian system compromised, the onus is on governments, civil society, and local communities to mitigate anticipated shocks and their fallout. Local mutual aid efforts have ramped up significantly and effectively, but they need better support through complementary funding and more flexible public policies. Donors and the U.N. should ensure that greater proportions of funding in the formal global humanitarian system go to local initiatives.
Ultimately, the most worrisome driver behind this polycrisis is violent conflict. Civil wars and ongoing insurgencies in Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia have been dragging on for years and have drawn in more countries. The international community must be willing to hold warring parties and their foreign supporters accountable for intentionally starving parts of their populations. Improved monitoring and evidence, including evidence of atrocities and the use of starvation as a weapon, are crucial for effective assistance and accountability.
The Greater Horn of Africa is facing a perfect storm of challenges, and the consequences could be devastating. Without immediate prevention measures, the polycrisis will have widespread impacts on basic health, nutrition, and water services, leading to mass mortality and displacement. It is imperative that the international community takes action to address this crisis and support the region's vulnerable populations.
